Arizona Is Losing Colorado River Water. Is Yuma?

The 30-second answer

Arizona’s proposed 760,000-acre-foot reduction is not an across-the-board 27% cut to Yuma. The statewide number comes from a conditional sharing arrangement. Yuma-area users hold different rights, and the August planning presentation did not settle how on-river Priority 4 would be treated. 2027–2028 operating guidelines · Arizona shortage presentation · Arizona priority rules

That does not make Yuma exempt. Some local rights are senior to the Central Arizona Project, while some local water is Priority 4. Final agreements, individual delivery orders, voluntary conservation and future river conditions still matter. The available evidence supports neither “Yuma loses 27%” nor “Yuma loses nothing.” Arizona priority rules · Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · Reclamation Priority 4 list

What Washington actually finalized

On August 21, 2026, Interior announced operating guidelines for 2027 and 2028 that reduce the Lower Basin’s annual Colorado River supply by 1.25 million acre-feet. An acre-foot is a volume equal to covering one acre one foot deep. Interior announcement · 2027–2028 operating guidelines

The accompanying Record of Decision establishes a 2027–2036 decision framework. The detailed rules discussed here apply to the first two years. A longer-term framework exists, but it does not settle every operating detail after 2028. Federal Record of Decision

Where Arizona's 760,000-acre-foot number comes from

The guidelines identify a proposed annual split of 760,000 acre-feet for Arizona, 440,000 for California and 50,000 for Nevada. Those numbers add to 1.25 million. Section 5.3.A ties that split to implementing agreements; without the necessary executed agreements, the Secretary determines the apportionment under applicable law. 2027–2028 operating guidelines

The May 1 Lower Division States proposal is part of that history, not proof that all implementation documents were signed. This review did not establish that every required agreement was executed as of September 22. The Arizona share therefore remains described here with its condition attached. Lower Basin states proposal · 2027–2028 operating guidelines

Why "Arizona loses 27%, so Yuma loses 27%" does not work

Divide 760,000 by Arizona’s listed basic apportionment of 2.8 million acre-feet and the result is about 27.14%. That is statewide arithmetic. It is not a formula directing every city, tribe, district or farm to reduce use by the same percentage. 2026 Reclamation water forecast · 2027–2028 operating guidelines

Yuma is a place, not one water contract. The official lists assign different local entries to different priorities and describe some quantities as diversion and others as consumptive use. Applying one percentage to all of them skips the allocation decisions that would be needed. This conclusion is our inference from those records, not a quoted court ruling. Arizona priority rules · Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · Reclamation Priority 4 list

Arizona’s priority system in plain English

Priority describes where a right stands relative to other rights when water is allocated. Reclamation places present perfected rights in Priority 1, certain earlier rights in Priority 2 and qualifying pre-September 30, 1968 contracts in Priority 3. It treats Priorities 2 and 3 as coequal. Arizona priority rules

Priority 4 includes the CAP contract and later on-river contracts. Reclamation’s description includes proportional treatment and qualifications for governing law, regulations, Secretarial determinations and approved sharing agreements. That is why a simple “all Yuma is ahead of CAP” claim goes too far. The City’s legal arguments about relative priority also need to remain attributed to the City. Arizona priority rules · City of Yuma MC 2026-173

Who actually holds Yuma-area Colorado River water

The following is a guide to entries in Reclamation’s lists, not a complete legal inventory or a forecast of deliveries. The retained files have different revision labels: Priority 1, September 2025; Priority 3, August 2024; Priority 4, December 2025. They were retrieved and checked as individual files on September 22, 2026. Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · Reclamation Priority 4 list

Yuma County Water Users’ Association: Priority 1 lists 254,200 acre-feet of annual diversion under PPR No. 4. Priority 3 also lists an unquantified diversion entry. The list does not specify an additional Priority 3 amount. Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list

Wellton-Mohawk Irrigation and Drainage District: Priority 3 lists 278,000 acre-feet of annual consumptive use. That is not a 278,000-acre-foot diversion figure. Reclamation Priority 3 list

Yuma Mesa Division: Priority 3 lists a shared 250,000-acre-foot annual consumptive-use entitlement. Its shares are North Gila Valley Irrigation District, 41,203; Yuma Irrigation District, 67,278; and Yuma Mesa Irrigation and Drainage District, 141,519. Those shares make up the total; they are not extra water on top of it. North Gila Valley also has a Priority 1 entry for 24,500 acre-feet of diversion. Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list

City of Yuma: the Priority 1 entry lists 1,478 acre-feet of consumptive use / 2,333 acre-feet of diversion, subject to the list’s limiting footnote. The Priority 3 entry supplies the balance needed for a combined 50,000 acre-feet of annual consumptive use. The total is not 50,000 plus 1,478. Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list

Yuma Auxiliary Project, or Unit B: Priority 1 lists 6,800 acre-feet of diversion. The Priority 3 entry describes diversion reasonably needed to irrigate 3,305 acres. Acres measure land area; they cannot be substituted for an acre-foot volume. The entitlement list’s project name and the accounting records’ Unit B district name are retained as distinct descriptions. Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · Arizona schedules and approvals

Cocopah: separate Priority 1 entries list 7,681 and 1,140 acre-feet of diversion. The retained Priority 4 list, page 4, lists 2,026 acre-feet of diversion and cross-references both entries. This establishes mixed listed priorities, not a complete inventory of tribal holdings or a 10% Cocopah cut. Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 4 list

City of Somerton: Priority 4 lists 750 acre-feet of annual diversion under contract 03-XX-30-W0419. That is an entitlement entry, not a statement of how much Somerton currently uses. Reclamation Priority 4 list

The federal Yuma Project also crosses the state line. Reclamation describes 68,091 acres: 53,415 in Arizona’s Valley Division and 14,676 in California’s Reservation Division. That is the agency’s project description, not a current planted-acreage count. The name “Yuma Project” does not assign all its water to Arizona. Yuma Project overview

Keep five terms separate: entitlement is the right described by the governing record; diversion is water taken from the river; consumptive use is water consumed rather than returned to the river; an approved annual diversion or order is an authorized operational quantity; a forecast estimates what will happen. A forecast diversion and a forecast consumptive-use figure are not interchangeable. Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · 2026 Reclamation water forecast · Reclamation water-accounting records

A concrete example comes from the official CY2026 forecast stamped September 21, 2026, 11:44:47 AM. Its City of Yuma row lists 32,600 acre-feet of approved diversion, 31,242 of forecast diversion and 18,646 of forecast use. These describe the same year in different ways. None is the City’s 50,000-acre-foot legal consumptive-use entitlement or a 2027 allocation. The report remains provisional, and monthly use-to-date reporting is updated through July. 2026 Reclamation water forecast

What Arizona's current 2027 planning says

The August 24 Arizona Reconsultation Committee presentation is explicitly preliminary and illustrative. Slide 39 shows 100% shortages for the CAP Agricultural Pool and CAP Non-Indian Agricultural Priority, 14% for CAP Municipal & Industrial Priority and 10% for CAP Indian Priority. On-river Priority 4 is listed as TBD. Arizona shortage presentation

These are categories in a planning scenario, not final notices to individual Yuma users. In particular, the CAP Indian Priority percentage is not a Cocopah allocation. The ARC index checked September 22 still listed August 24 as its latest meeting; this review did not verify a newer final on-river determination. It also did not verify individual Yuma-area 2027 delivery orders. The accounting index examined linked to 2026 schedules and approvals. Arizona Reconsultation Committee · Arizona schedules and approvals

Does that mean Yuma is safe?

The records do not justify that promise. Senior rights matter, but Yuma-area users do not all have the same priority, and important implementation questions remain open. A federal operating decision and a statewide percentage cannot tell a particular household, tribe or farm exactly what its delivery will be. Arizona priority rules · Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · Reclamation Priority 4 list · Arizona shortage presentation

It would also be premature to say CAP absorbs Arizona’s entire reduction. Final allocation arrangements, reservoir conditions, legal decisions and the rules adopted for later years can affect the outcome. The useful next evidence is the applicable agreement or delivery order for the specific water holder, not a blanket assurance about Yuma. 2027–2028 operating guidelines · Federal Record of Decision

What voluntary conservation could mean for Yuma agriculture

Mandatory shortage and voluntary conservation are different mechanisms. Section 5.3.B of the operating guidelines specifies an additional 700,000 acre-feet in total across 2026, 2027 and 2028 through voluntary contractor agreements. It does not say 700,000 every year or limit that total to 2027–2028. 2027–2028 operating guidelines

The May 1 proposal discusses minimum state conservation contributions of Arizona 300,000, California 300,000 and Nevada 100,000 acre-feet, contingent on appropriate funding. Those proposed contributions are not delivery orders to particular Yuma districts. Lower Basin states proposal

For a local grower, the practical questions are whether the district or grower participates, what the agreement requires, what compensation and timing apply, and how conserved water is verified. The records used here do not establish specific Yuma participation in this new 700,000-acre-foot program. Existing conservation entries in a 2026 forecast do not by themselves answer that question. 2027–2028 operating guidelines · Lower Basin states proposal · 2026 Reclamation water forecast

What the U.S.-Mexico agreement changes

Minute 334 addresses binational Colorado River cooperative measures through December 31, 2028. It was signed September 2 and approved by both governments September 8. Reclamation’s September 9 announcement describes cooperation on water-use reductions, salinity and evaluation of additional water sources. IBWC Minutes archive · Minute 334 · U.S.–Mexico agreement announcement

This is a separate U.S.–Mexico arrangement. Mexico is not a Lower Basin state, and its treaty measures should not be folded into Arizona’s conditional 760,000-acre-foot share. This explanation establishes that distinction and the agreement’s dates; it does not claim to resolve every treaty implementation question. 2027–2028 operating guidelines · Minute 334

Why the City of Yuma authorized possible legal action

The City’s MC 2026-173 record is marked Passed, with final action September 16. Its report objects to the federal decision’s treatment of Lower Basin users and sets out the City’s position on priority rights. The motion authorizes exploring legal action, retaining counsel and potentially entering litigation to protect Yuma’s rights. City of Yuma MC 2026-173

Those priority arguments are the City’s legal position, not an independent judicial finding. The passed motion proves authorization; it does not prove that Yuma filed suit or won a ruling. This review did not verify a later City-specific filing. The report’s September 9 administrative signatures are also distinct from the September 16 council action. City of Yuma MC 2026-173 · Yuma City Council meeting record

What is still unknown

This review has not established execution of all necessary Lower Basin implementing agreements, final treatment of on-river Priority 4, individual Yuma-area 2027 delivery orders, or participation and terms for particular users in the new voluntary-conservation program. 2027–2028 operating guidelines · Arizona shortage presentation · Arizona schedules and approvals · Arizona Reconsultation Committee

Later City litigation filings or orders, future reservoir determinations and detailed post-2028 operating arrangements also need continuing review. Not verified here does not mean nonexistent. The retained entitlement lists do not establish that no subsequent amendments exist. City of Yuma MC 2026-173 · Federal Record of Decision · Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · Reclamation Priority 4 list

Sources / last reviewed

Last reviewed September 22, 2026. This article draws on official records checked September 21–22, including follow-up checks on unresolved questions and sources that can change. Source links appear beside factual claims; the connected source records preserve page references and limitations. Four retained PDFs preserve the entitlement lists and the September 21 forecast used here.

Key reading: final guidelines §5.3.A, printed page 7 / PDF page 8; voluntary conservation §5.3.B, printed page 8 / PDF page 9; Arizona presentation slide 39; Priority 1 pages 1–3; Priority 3 pages 1 and 3; Priority 4 pages 3–4; forecast Arizona pages 2–3; Minute 334 page 1; and MC 2026-173’s action status and staff report. 2027–2028 operating guidelines · Arizona shortage presentation · Reclamation Priority 1 list · Reclamation Priority 3 list · Reclamation Priority 4 list · 2026 Reclamation water forecast · Minute 334 · City of Yuma MC 2026-173